The economic climate
In 2024, economic activity showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year. This was observed in the main indicators, both the most general ones and those derived from tax returns. The most commonly used indicator of activity in real terms, the GDP in volume terms , grew by 3.2%, half a point more than in 2023. Growth was consistent throughout the year, with quarter-on-quarter rates averaging around 0.8%. On a year-on-year basis, rates rose from 2.2% in the second half of 2023 to 3.4% at the end of 2024 (Chart 1.1). The growth was mainly due to the strength of domestic demand; Its contribution to growth was 2.8 points, more than one point higher than that recorded in 2023. The contribution of external demand improved in the middle of the year, and exports of goods, which had been postponing their performance, recovered in the second half of the year, but this was not enough to offset the stronger growth in imports compared to 2023.
In nominal terms, the situation was very different as a result of the end of the inflationary tensions of previous years. Nominal moderated considerably from 9.1% in 2023 to % in 2024 Its behavior throughout the year (Chart 1.1) was somewhat irregular in parallel with the evolution of the deflator, a price indicator with a somewhat different behavior than other measures. In any case, in nominal terms and for income purposes, domestic demand is more relevant, more closely related to these nominal . Unlike GDP , domestic demand in 2024 grew at a similar rate (6.2%) to that in 2023 (Chart 1.2). Nor employee compensation, another of the accounting macro-measures more useful than nominal for tracking income, slow down as much as the latter (Chart 1.2).
Regarding fiscal indicators, all of them gave an unequivocal upward signal, with the added benefit of a recovery in exports starting mid-year. The daily sales of the Immediate Information Supply System ( SII ) of VAT, the almost real-time indicator of activity, followed an upward trend from the January low. In Graphs 1.3 and 1.4 you can see: in the first with daily data in 28-day moving average comparing the evolution in 2023 and 2024, and in the second in monthly period once deflated and corrected for seasonal and calendar effects ( cvec ). The improvement in exports and their contribution to the upward trend in sales is reflected in Chart 1.5. Exports, which had been in the red for virtually the entire year of 2023, recovered in February and closed the year with growth slightly above 2%.
The improvement in sales throughout 2024 could also be followed in real time with the new Large Companies and SMEs Sales Preview , available since April 2024 on the Tax Agency's website. The difference with the daily sales provided by the SII is that, while these only use the invoices issued by the declarants of the SII that are recorded in the Record Book of Issued Invoices ( LRFE ), the advance uses both the invoices issued by the LRFE and those received that are found in the Record Book of Received Invoices ( LRFR ). Consequently, this exploitation includes both the issuers and recipients of invoices (who are the taxpayers of the SII , about 70 thousand taxpayers) and their counterparts (who are the rest of the companies and the final consumers). This allows for the construction of indicators with more than 1.2 million companies, that is, all the declarants of the statistics Sales, Employment and Salaries in Large Companies and SMEs . Chart 1.6 shows the evolution of this daily progress indicator in 2024 and illustrates how sales growth was on the rise as information was received. Even after the impact of the hurricane at the end of October, sales were able to recover quickly.
All of the above is summarized in Chart 1.7 which shows the quarterly evolution of total sales of Large Companies and , the economic activity indicator with greatest coverage of those in existence. The graph clearly shows the change in trend between 2023 and 2024. Last year's report already warned of signs of recovery that could be seen in the final months of 2023. These signs were quickly confirmed at the beginning of 2024, before consolidating an upward trajectory throughout the remainder of the year.
As far as prices are concerned, in annual terms it can be said that in 2024 the inflationary tensions that occurred between mid-2021 and early 2023 continued to ease. However, a closer look at what happened during the year reveals some nuances to this statement, given that the recovery in energy prices led to a slight price spike at the end of the year.
In Chart 1.8 you can see both aspects with the evolution in 2023 and 2024 of consumer prices ( CPI ) and industrial production prices ( IPRI ). In the case of the CPI , the slowdown, on average for the year, was 0.7 percentage points (from 3.5% to 2.8%), although this slowdown is more clearly seen if we compare the year-on-year growth rates of around 6% in the first months of 2023 and the rate of 2.8% in December 2024. Now, looking at year-to-date performance, we went from a stable first half of 2023 to a second half marked by a slowdown and a subsequent rebound. In the IPRI the year 2024 saw the continuation of the fall in prices (they fell by 3.7% after the 4.7% drop in 2023) following the strong price increases in 2021 and 2022 (17.2% and 35.5%, respectively). Over the course of the year, however, what we see is a progressive reduction in negative rates, until they return to growth in the last two months of 2024.
The profile of both indicators is determined, as has already been noted in recent years, by the evolution of energy prices. Chart 1.9 shows the CPI and the IPRI without energy. It can be concluded that inflationary tensions will indeed end in 2024, especially in the area of industrial production. Graph 1.10, with the energy price indices, shows the origin of the price spike at the end of the year.
In employment the year 2024 was generally characterized by a slight moderation in growth, which is reflected to a greater or lesser extent in the various indicators. Figure 1.11 shows the two most general measures, Social Security affiliates and full-time equivalent employment from the National Accounts. As seen in the case of affiliates, the slight moderation trend that began in 2023 continued in the first three quarters. Only in the last quarter was a small improvement seen. The National Accounting data, always with its peculiarities, also reflects the slower pace of job creation, especially in the middle of the year, and the eventual recovery. In salaried employment (Chart 1.12), the slowdown would have been more intense and without improvement in the final part of the year, as can be deduced from the affiliation and salary recipients from tax documents, although it is not exactly the same if equivalent employment is considered.
Finally, mention should be made of the generation of added value in the production process and its distribution among factors based on tax information. The most notable facts are summarized in Figures 1.13 and 1.14. Both come from the data provided by the Tax Agency within the Business Margins Observatory . This information allows for a detailed analysis of the added value generated by corporate companies and individual companies in direct estimation, with quarterly frequency and sector-by-sector detail. Chart 1.13 shows the evolution of sales, purchases and added value in these two groups of companies (1.13a companies and 1.13b personal companies). As can be seen, in 2024, added value followed a similar deceleration pattern to that of nominal , greater intensity in corporations than in individual businesses, where the increase in added value was almost the same as in 2023. The distribution of this added value between wages and profits is shown in Chart 1.14, which represents the percentage of this added value that goes to profits. The graph indicates that, in societies, after peaking in 2022, the percentage has returned in the last two years to levels closer to those recorded before COVID. In personal businesses, however, a growing trend has been maintained for practically the last nine years.
